Liverpool’s path to the Premier League championship was slowed significantly when Manchester City drew with West Ham United last time out. The Reds will now attempt to put pressure on the Cityzens in Tuesday’s lone away game at Southampton.
Arsenal is four points behind Manchester City at the top of the Premier League standings, with a game in hand. Southampton is secure in 15th place in the English Premier League, ahead of Leeds United, Burnley, and Everton. Having saying that, the Saints will be trying to be home spoilers.
So, where is the value in this midweek matchup? Let us investigate.
Southampton Could Act as a Spoiler
At this stage in the season, all Southampton has to play for is dignity and to generate good momentum for next season. The team also has a chance to conclude the Premier League championship fight for good.
Better still, the Saints will want to reclaim some glory from their last encounter with Liverpool. When they were hammered 4-0 after leading 3-0 at the interval. The Reds had a 3.07-0.97 expected-goal difference in that game, putting the pressure on Southampton early and never letting up.
Fortunately for Southampton, it will not be required to compete in one of the most demanding venues in sports. Rather, it will return to the spot where it gained three points in this encounter barely a year ago.
There, an early Danny Ings goal separated Southampton for the duration of the game. And it was a respectable effort, as the Saints held the Reds to 1.35 xG in the victory. However, a comparable effort will be required in this case. The odds are provided by OKBET Sportsbook for a complete list.
Liverpool is in desperate need of all three points.
The Reds appeared doomed after losing to Tottenham, but Man City provided a lifeline by losing 2-0 to West Ham. For a brief time, Liverpool seemed to be on the verge of resuming its league lead without the need for assistance, but the Reds were held to a stalemate.
Liverpool isn’t out yet, but it’ll need more lost points to have a chance at the crown. The health of his players, which suffered a huge knock against Chelsea in the FA Cup final, is another source of worry for manager Jürgen Klopp.
Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk were both replaced before the conclusion of the game, while With a hamstring issue, Fabinho was ruled out. These are three important players for Liverpool, and it’s probable that Klopp may rest additional players in order to keep the group fresh before the Champions League final.
Analysis of Betting and Selection
If this was a match in the middle of the season with healthy teams, it would be simple to choose the Reds to win convincingly. However, this is a one-of-a-kind circumstance.
Liverpool is battling with injuries and has its sights set on the Champions League final in less than two weeks, while this is Southampton’s penultimate remaining encounter.
Southampton’s xG/game difference at Saint Mary’s is -.01, while Liverpool has a road xG/game differential of 0.93 this season. This Liverpool, on the other hand, will be severely lacking in personnel.
I’ll support Southampton to keep things tight in a positive position at very little juice.
Southampton +1.5 is my pick (-115).