The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (3-3) will host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (3-3) in Game 7 of their Western Conference semifinal series on Sunday at the Footprint Center, with tip-off set for 8 p.m. ET. We examine the Mavericks vs. Suns odds and lines and give our expert NBA selections, predictions, and bets below.
Dallas clinched the series with a 113-86 victory against Phoenix in Game 6 at home on Thursday. The Mavericks surpassed the Suns in three of the “four elements,” outscoring Phoenix in each of the four quarters.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic scored a game-high 33 points, 8 assists, and 11 rebounds. In this series, Phoenix’s ball security has been a concern, as the Suns recorded an 18-to-22 assist-to-turnover ratio in Game 6.
This series’ “four variables” have been divided, with the home team winning and covering each game, and the total is 2-4 Over/Under (O/U).
Odds and lines for the Mavericks vs. the Suns
The odds are provided by OKBET Sportsbook for a complete list. Lines were at 11:36 a.m. ET.
- Mavericks +225 (bet 100 to win 225) | Suns -290 (bet 290 to win 100)
- Against the odds: Suns -6.5 | Mavericks +6.5 (-110) (-110)
- Under/Over: 204.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Key injuries for the Mavericks and Suns
Mavericks
- None
Suns
- None
Game 7 Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 103, Suns 100
Moneyline
SPRINT on the MAVERICKS (+225), if at all, since their spread is the far sharper option, although Dallas’ ML has some value here. Luka is by far the most talented player in this series, and his playoff career stats through his first three postseasons are ridiculous.
Doncic’s dribble penetration has exposed Phoenix’s perimeter defense, leading to wide-open 3-pointers for the Mavericks in this series, explaining Dallas’ astounding 49.9 percent 3-point attempt percentage in the playoffs.
This is troubling since the Suns aren’t “making Luka beat them,” nor are they shutting down Luka. Dallas might terminate Phoenix’s season sooner than planned if Doncic is “getting his” and finding open teammates on 3-pointers.
Possessions will be even more vital in his must-win Game 7, and the Suns have been sloppy with the ball all season.
Again, I’d just SPRINT on the MAVERICKS (+225) with the intention of attacking Dallas’ spread more aggressively.
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Against the odds
BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-110) instead of or in addition to their ML because both teams are neck-and-neck in this series, with the Suns -6.5 (-1110) scoring 1.9 more points per 100 possessions and 1.8 more points per game.
The spread hasn’t been an issue in the first six games of this series, However, in terms of efficiency, there isn’t much distinguishing these squads, and Game 7 should come down to the wire.
Finally, the “backdoor cover” in this game is wide open since Dallas will certainly battle until the final buzzer, and a late-game 3-point barrage might pay an MAVERICKS +6.5 (-110) ticket.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 204.5 (-110) because Game 7s tend to go under the total and the Mavericks-Suns series is moving at a slower pace than the NBA playoff average. During the regular season, Dallas actually played at the slowest tempo.
However, the oddsmakers had thought that the Mavericks-Suns Game 7 would be more of a rock-and-roll battle since the total is 11 points lower than the Game 5 total of 215.5.
This number doesn’t have much value, but the UNDER 204.5 (-110) is the only side of the total I’d bet on.
Read more: Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Game 7: NBA Play-Off Prediction & Odds Today
